Electric Truck Market Size & Share Analysis - Trends, Drivers, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts (2024-2030)

Electric Truck Market Size & Share Analysis

The electric truck market is estimated to be at 135,632 units in 2023, and it is expected to grow at a CAGR of 34.5% during 2024–2030, to reach 1,074,084 units by 2030.

The conventional fuel-based trucks have high operating and maintenance cost, as compared to the EV trucks. Unlike conventional ones, electric models do not require oil changes, spark plug replacements, fuel filters, and emission checks, resulting in substantial savings in overall component costs. With such vehicles requiring less maintenance than their conventional counterparts, the vehicle uptime for the former increases significantly, which should benefit fleet owners.

Like electric buses, such trucks also employ regenerative braking systems, which help in achieving significant reduction in wear and tear of brakes. The fuel costs, coupled with repair and maintenance costs, constitute around 35% of the total operating cost in case of a diesel truck.

Such costs can be significantly reduced by replacing diesel trucks with the electric variants, which can significantly improve the benefit-to-cost ratio for fleet owners. Therefore, it can be said that the low operating and maintenance cost of such trucks is expected to drive the growth of the market.

Additionally, the country has the largest acceptance of electric trucks due to China's central government's 2015 elimination of maximum weight limits on truck and subsidies on LCVs. Due to the advanced model selection, constant advancements in battery performance, and declining battery prices, it is projected that the sales of electric trucks in China would rise.

Moreover, a significant share of global sales was from China in 2022, and it is expected that this dominance would persist throughout the projection period. Due to the existence of corporations like, BYD Auto Co. Ltd., Dongfeng Motor Corporation, Daimler AG, and FAW Group Co., Ltd., the area will hold a dominant share during the forecast period.

Electric Truck Market Trends & Drivers

Practice of Telematics Services is Trending

• One of the major trends observed in the global electric truck market is the practice of telematics services in electric trucks. Due to increasing competition in the market, fleet operators are in search for means to reduce vehicle operational cost and increase efficient operation of the trucks in their fleet. Most of the fleet operators use over 90 performance indicators to monitor their vehicles, drivers, and freight, and optimize their processes. They are gaining additional information from Industry 4.0 concepts, also known as Fourth Industrial Revolution, accompanies the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies.
• New telematics solutions are allowing this connectivity within the production landscape and transport chain. The functionalities and use of telematics services offer services monitoring the entire vehicle, which includes preventive maintenance, integrated repair services, theft tracking, and integrated entertainment services; services focusing on driving behavior and safety; and services including fleet management functions and supply chain integration.
• Due to these facilities, most of the electric truck manufacturers are incorporating telematics services into their products. For instance, Efficient Drivetrains Inc. under its product portfolio offers EDI PowerSuite series to electric vehicle OEMs, including electric truck manufacturers. EDI PowerSuite series is an advanced suite of fleet telematics and drivetrain control software allowing management of electric and hybridized drivetrains, and remote and automated monitoring of vehicle performance.

Stringent Emissions Targets and Government Regulations Drives Market

• The low operating and maintenance cost of a zero/low-emission truck may help to achieve cost parity as compared to its conventional counterparts. But the government regulations will help the market grow much faster. Major regulatory measures are stringent emissions norms for the reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air; and diesel bans in various urban areas across the world, with cities, such as Paris, Madrid, and Mexico City already started announcing diesel bans.
• With France and the U.K. having already announced bans on the fossil-fuel vehicle sales starting from 2040, the major players, under this direct regulatory pressure, are shifting from the conventional diesel trucks to the electric ones.
• Also, some countries, including Norway and India, are striving to meet their EV penetration targets in an attempt to fulfil their commitment to reduce CO2 emissions under the Paris Agreement. The diesel bans and other emission regulations are forcing manufacturers to include zero/low-emission trucks in their product offerings, thereby driving the development of the market.

Declining Battery Price

• In the electric trucks, the battery pack is one of the primary components and forms a significant share of the overall drivetrain cost, and considerably influences the selling price of the vehicle. Such packs in EVs include electrochemical cells within casing, and are integrated with management systems.
• The price of these packs is mainly affected by the chemistry used in electrochemical cells, as chemistry determines a range of performance-determining parameters, such as energy-to-weight ratio, lifetime, and charging time. The batteries used in electric trucks are similar to the ones used in passenger cars, with the number of cells being greater in the former.
• Technological advancements in battery development over the past decade helped to bring down the price of these battery packs. Also, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is on the rise. However, battery manufacturing industry is growing much faster than the demand. As a result, the battery prices have fallen drastically over the years. The prices will decline faster in the coming years, owing to the rise in research and development (R&D) expenditures by the major manufacturers across the world.

In-Depth Segmentation Analysis

Propulsion Overview - BEV is the Largest and Fastest Growing Category

• The BEV category is expected to grow fastest, with a CAGR of over 38.2% in the forecast period. This is due to governments’ support in the form of financial incentives for the purchase and development of these vehicles, and improvements in technology. Government incentives for such trucks have been announced in a few countries, with programs and schemes tailor-made for supporting related freight equipment and infrastructure.
• Commercial vehicles are an integral part of the transport industry. In order to cut down the emissions from diesel-based trucks used by fleet operators, the governments have announced a ban on the use of diesel-based vehicles. The ban will come into effect in some countries as early as 2030 with the reduction in prices, is also driving the growth of the category.

Propulsions covered in the report include:

• BEV (Largest and Fastest-Growing Category)
• HEV
• PHEV
• FCEV

Vehicle Type Insights - HDT is Largest and Fastest Growing Category

HDT category is projected to grow at the fastest rate over the forecast period, at around 39.6% CAGR. The rapidly expanding global freight transport demand as well as the enormous economic expansion in China and India are the main causes of growth.

Moreover, the HDT category is expanding significantly in developed economies, such as the U.S. and European countries, which can be attributed to fleet owners' rising demand for long-haul HDTs that use alternative fuels. Additionally, in order to meet the growing the demand and maximize their benefits from government financial incentive programs, companies are continuing the production of HDTs in large numbers.

The following Vehicle type are included in the report:

• LDT
• MDT
• HDT (Largest and Fastest-Growing Category)

Asia Pacific Holds 50% Share of the Global Market

• APAC held the largest revenue share, around 50%, in the market in 2023. China is the largest market for electric trucks in the region. The demand for the automobiles in China is strongly driven by favorable government initiatives, national alternative-fuel-vehicle replacement sales targets, and municipal air quality targets.
• The market in other regions is still in its developmental phase and depends largely on policies of the government. The comparatively higher upfront costs, underdeveloped value chain, and presence of few OEMs have limited the sales in these regions. However, the manufacturers are heavily investing on the development of electric trucks, which will boost the market growth in the future.
• Moreover, the market in North America will grow at a considerable rate during the forecast period, as the fleet owners are increasingly including battery-powered trucks in their fleets to level with the accelerating demand for freight transport. Incentive schemes offered by national governments in the region are also driving the industry growth to a great extent. The market growth is also driven by the stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations to meet CO2 emission and fuel economy standards.
• The region is home to some of the main market players in the world, including Tesla Inc. and Nikola Motor Company. In December 2022, Elon Musk stated that Pepsi will receive the first electric trucks and that Tesla will begin the Tesla Semi production. Tesla Semi's has 500-mile range and efficiency of under 2 kWh per mile have the potential to significantly alter the land-based freight transportation business. With per kWh costing $0.20, the cost of operation per mile is $0.40. That is around half of what a diesel truck would cost to operate.
• Similarly, in March 2022, the manufacturing of Nikola Motor Company's first battery-powered semitruck has started. With an estimated range of roughly 350 miles, the truck is designed for shorter distances. Between 300 and 500 of the trucks will be delivered by Nikola, with production increasing to a higher level in 2023. With such factors the market of U.S. held a significant share of the global market in 2022.

Further, regions and countries analyzed for this report include:

• North America
  • U.S. (Larger and Faster-Growing Country Market)
  • Canada
• Europe (Fastest-Growing Regional Market)
  • Germany
  • U.K. (Largest Country Market)
  • France (Fastest-Growing Country Market)
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Rest of Europe
• Asia-Pacific (APAC) (Largest Regional Market)
  • China (Largest Country Market)
  • Japan
  • India
  • South Korea (Fastest-Growing Country Market)
  • Australia
  • Rest of APAC
• Latin America (LATAM)
  • Brazil (Largest Country Market)
  • Mexico Fastest-Growing Country Market)
  • Rest of LATAM
• Middle East and Africa (MEA)
  • Saudi Arabia (Largest Country Market)
  • South Africa
  • U.A.E. (Fastest-Growing Country Market)
  • Rest of MEA

Competitive Analysis

The market is consolidated in nature, owing to many players are launching innovative products. The market is evolving rapidly, driven by a combination of factors including advancements in battery technology, regulatory pressures to reduce emissions, and a growing demand for sustainable transportation solutions. Electric trucks offer several advantages over traditional diesel trucks, such as lower operating costs, reduced maintenance, and environmental benefits.

Electric Truck Companies’ News

• In November 2023, Ab Volvo unveils updated electric trucks designed for zero-emission city transports.
• In October 2023, Daimler Truck AG launched newest brand of Daimler Truck AG (“Daimler Truck”), which is offering all-electric class 4 and 5 medium-duty trucks for the U.S. market