Electric Truck Market Overview
The global electric truck market is expected to observe extensive growth in the coming years because of stringent emission norms and growing government support in the form of subsidies, grants, and tax rebates for electric vehicles. In addition, falling battery pack costs, improving charging infrastructure, and increasing electric vehicle range have fueled the global demand for electric trucks.
On the basis of vehicle type, electric truck market is categorized into hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). During the forecast period, the BEV category is expected to hold the major share in the electric truck market, owing to the government support in the form of subsidies. On the basis of battery type, Li-ion battery is expected to be the fastest growing category during the forecast period. Falling prices of Li-ion batteries is expected to benefit their sales during the forecast period.
Based on the market size, the light commercial vehicle (LCV) category is expected to dominate the industry during the forecast period, owing to the higher production and sales and lower upfront cost of LCVs as compared to heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs). In the latter half of the forecast period, electric LCVs are expected to reach cost parity with diesel LCVs, which will further benefit their market growth.
During the forecast period, Asia-Pacific, led by China, is expected to be the largest electric truck market, globally. The Chinese government support for new energy vehicles as well as the government plans to end the sale of new conventional vehicles in the coming years is anticipated to fuel the demand for these trucks in the region.
Electric Truck Market Dynamics
The electric truck market is primarily driven by the regulatory environment of countries, which includes country-level emission regulations and local access policies and stringent motor vehicle fuel efficiency norms. For example, in the U.S., the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations for the 2017–2025 period aim at increasing the average fuel economy for cars and light-duty trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon (MPG) from 35.5 MPG in 2016. Similarly, the European Union (EU) aims to achieve the emission target of 95 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer (CO2/km) by 2021 from its 2015 target of 130 grams CO2/km.
The growing concern on CO2 emissions around the world is leading to a gradual phase out of conventional vehicles, which, in turn, is benefiting the electric truck market. Many countries have planned to ban the production and sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles in the long term. For instance, Norway, France, the U.K., India, and the Netherlands have plans to ban the production and sale of such vehicles over the 2025–2040 period.
Although the fuel cost and the total cost of ownership for electric trucks are generally lower than those for conventional, fuel-powered trucks, the initial purchase price is significantly higher, which has slowed down their mass adoption, especially in the emerging markets. However, with advancements in the battery technology, the battery cost is expected to fall significantly during the forecast period, which, in turn, will reduce the upfront purchase price of these trucks and benefit the electric truck market.
Electric Truck Market Competitive Landscape
The global electric truck market is competitive and is characterized by the presence of a considerable number of established electric truck manufacturers. The established players are expected to offer several alternative powertrain vehicles for niche application during the forecast period. Some of the major players in the industry are Daimler AG, BYD Co Ltd., Iveco S.p.A., E-Force One AG, Scania AB, Hino Motors Ltd., Allison Transmission Inc., Isuzu Motors Limited, Nissan Motor Company Ltd, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation.