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The global autonomous commercial vehicle market is projected to advance with a CAGR of 8.2% during the forecast period (2020–2030). The growth of the market is majorly attributed to the ongoing evolution in connected vehicle technologies, growing need for an efficient and safe driving option, and operational benefits, coupled with the increasing support from governments toward deployment of autonomous commercial vehicles.
However, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic around the world has adverse impact on the autonomous commercial vehicle market. Hindrance in supply chain management, closing down of manufacturing facilities, and decline in sales of commercial vehicles due to lack of demand are expected to hinder the market growth, temporarily, in 2020.
The semi-autonomous category held larger share in the autonomous commercial vehicle market in 2019, based on vehicle autonomy. In order to achieve level 1 automation, vehicle should be equipped with at least one of the advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) features (either for steering or acceleration) or electronic stability control (ESC). Moreover, many countries, including the U.S. and the European countries, have mandated the installation of the basic ADAS features in all new commercial vehicles, which inherently made all the vehicles as semi-autonomous vehicles in such countries.
The truck category dominated the autonomous commercial vehicle market during the historical period, on the basis of vehicle type. Furthermore, the category is expected to remain the larger category during forecast period. The dominance of the category is buoyed by the growing demand for autonomous trucks for various logistics applications, such as domestic logistics transportation, automated material handling, logistics digitalization, and yard management.
During the forecast period, the alternative fuel category is expected to witness faster growth in the autonomous commercial vehicle market, on the basis of fuel type. This can be mainly ascribed to the increasing government support in the form of incentives and grants for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. Furthermore, these vehicles are less complex than conventional fuel-based vehicles and thus comprise less technological barriers for the development of electric autonomous vehicles.
The public transportation category is projected to exhibit the fastest growth in the autonomous commercial vehicle market during the forecast period, based on application. The expected growth of the category can be attributed to the increasing development and adoption of autonomous shuttle services for public-shared mobility purpose. Many establish as well as start-up companies have been coming up with their ambitious objectives to develop level 5 autonomous shuttle for public transportation, which would not require human driver for operation. Such initiatives are expected to boost the demand for autonomous commercial vehicles in public transportation application.
North America was the largest market for autonomous commercial vehicles in the world during the historical period and it is expected to remain the dominant market during the forecast period as well. Increasing R&D activities for the development of autonomous vehicles and rising support from federal and state governments for the evolution of autonomous driving technologies are the major factors propelling the growth of the North American market.
Furthermore, the U.S. is projected to continue leading the regional autonomous commercial vehicle market during the forecast period. This can be attributed to the presence of the prosperous trucking industry in the country, which is one of the major contributors to the country’s economy, providing employment to around 11.3 million people. Moreover, trucks account for moving around 71% of the country’s domestic freight and generate revenue of over $790 billion, each year. Thus, the huge trucking industry in the country is creating greater opportunity to undergo technological innovation in this sector, which results in the development of autonomous vehicles in this region.
Globally, the APAC autonomous commercial vehicle market is projected to witness the fastest growth during the forecast period. APAC is the world’s largest automobile manufacturing region, accounting for over half of the yearly vehicle production. In 2019, the region was responsible for producing around 51.2 million vehicles. Furthermore, the region is also the home to some of the global automotive giants, such as Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. Ltd., Hyundai Motor Co., Tata Motors Ltd., and SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd. However, even after such global dominance of the regional automobile sector, APAC is still far behind North America and Europe in the adoption of autonomous commercial vehicles, owing to highly price-sensitive in nature of consumers. However, the regional market is expected to witness significant growth in the forecast period, followed by the technological advancement carried out by countries, such as China, Japan, and South Korea.
One of the major trends witnessed in the autonomous commercial vehicle market is the increasing amount of investment toward the development of autonomous commercial vehicles. For instance, in 2018, Volkswagen AG announced to invest $34 billion on research and development (R&D) of autonomous technologies in the next five years. Moreover, governments of many countries across the world are aggressively investing on development of autonomous driving technologies. For instance, in 2018, the French government invested over $45 million, in order to boost the development of autonomous driving technology. Thus, the inflow of such massive investments appears as a major trend in the market.
The evolution of connected vehicle technologies is a major driver for the autonomous commercial vehicle market, as the integration of autonomous technologies in connected vehicles is comparatively easier when compared to conventional vehicles. The demand for connected vehicles is constantly increasing across the world, due to rapid technological advancements and their unique features, such as roadside assistance, traffic and collision warnings, automobile diagnostics, and real-time traffic monitoring, which are not available in conventional commercial vehicles. Moreover, the increasing digitization in connected vehicles is also fueling the growth of the market, as connected vehicles are already equipped with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-interface (V2I) connectivity, which are two of the primary requirements for achieving vehicle autonomy.
Road traffic, serious injuries, and deaths are some unacceptable and confounding outcome of road transportation, and the primary cause of road crashes and accidents is human error. Several factors associated with human drivers, such as the failure to pay attention, inappropriate speed, and keeping unsafe distance from the vehicle moving in front, are majorly responsible for road accidents. Thus, convincing promise holds by autonomous technology for safer performance and more efficient road traffic is the major reason behind attraction toward these vehicles, thereby driving the growth of the autonomous commercial vehicle market.
|Report Coverage||Market Trends, Revenue Estimation and Forecast, Segmentation Analysis, Regional and Country Breakdown, Company Share Analysis, Companies’ Strategical Developments, Product Benchmarking, Company Profiling|
|Market Size by Segments||Vehicle Autonomy, Vehicle Type, Fuel Type, Application, Region,|
|Market Size of Geographies||U.S., Canada, Germany, France, Italy, U.K., Spain, Japan, China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, U.A.E.|
|Secondary Sources and References (Partial List)||American Automobile Association (AAA), American Trucking Associations (ATA), Asia-Pacific Logistics Federation (APLF), Association for European Transport (AET), China Communications and Transportation Association (CCTA), European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Freight Transport Association (FTA) Note: Above listed references and organizations are partial; the detailed and complete list is available in the final report.|
The increasing government support in several countries in terms of financial incentives as well as policy formulation is a major booster for the autonomous commercial vehicle market. For instance, in 2018, Spain’s Directorate General of Traffic (DGT) prepared a regulatory policy and infrastructure ecosystem for the operation of autonomous vehicles. Furthermore, in the U.S., every year, a number of legislations being passed with regard to autonomous vehicles (including commercial vehicles) is gradually increasing. In 2018, 15 states in the U.S. enacted 18 autonomous vehicle related bills, and in 2017, 33 states introduced legislations regarding the same. Such supportive measures from the governments of different countries are expected to drive the market growth during the forecast period.
The global autonomous commercial vehicle market is consolidated in nature, with the presence of few major players, including Ford Motor Co., General Motor Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V., Toyota Motor Corp., and Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance.
In recent years, players operating in the autonomous commercial vehicle market have entered into several partnerships, agreements, and collaborations, in order to stay ahead of their competitors. For instance:
The research offers market size of the global autonomous commercial vehicle market for the period 2014–2030.
Based on Vehicle Autonomy
Based on Vehicle Type
Based on Fuel Type
Based on Application