U.S. Bus Market Size & Share Analysis - Trends, Drivers, Competitive Landscape, and Forecasts (2024 - 2030)

U.S. Bus Market Analysis

The U.S. bus market generated revenue of USD 8,315.2 million in 2023, which is expected to witness a CAGR of 5.0% during 2024–2030, to reach USD 11,635.8 million by 2030. This can be ascribed to the rapid urbanization and growing population, coupled with the increasing government spending on the upgradation of public transport vehicles. Moreover, the availability of local, state, and federal funding and the presence of a large number of school buses fuel the market growth.

Moreover, an efficient public transport system has the potential to improve traffic safety, air quality, and accessibility, as well as personal health. Public transportation uses less fuel and produces lower levels of volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide per passenger mile relative to private vehicles. Along with the environmental benefits, it has substantially lower crash rates and lower crash severity than traveling using personal vehicles. Commuting by public transit is 10 times safer per mile than commuting by one’s own automobile.

Moreover, people can minimize their chance of being in an accident by more than 90% by taking public transport as opposed to traveling by their own car.

U.S. Bus Market Trends & Drivers

Increasing Government Initiatives to Adopt Electric Buses

• A major trend observed in the U.S. bus market is the increasing number of government initiatives for the development and adoption of electric buses. The National Fuel Cell Bus Program (NFCBP) and the American Fuel Cell Bus (AFCB) Project have contributed immensely to in increasing the adoption of electric buses in the country. Their surging adoption is also paving the way for technology transfer, policy groundwork, and the growth of related component manufacturers.
• Moreover, various states in the country have started shaping their product development policies to conform to air quality and climate standards, with California leading the charge. Funding programs to encourage the adoption of these vehicles are also rising in number in the country.
• For instance, in FY 2021, the Low or No Emission Grant Program funded over 50 states and local governments, totaling USD 182.9 million. For the first time in the program’s history, all awards were for the purchase of electric buses and charging equipment. With the growing awareness of the environment and economic benefits of electric buses, there has been a substantial rise in the number of electric buses in the country.

Availability of Local, State, and Federal Funding Drives Market Growth

Transporting companies are phasing out aging buses and replacing them with newer, cleaner models that offer more-efficient operations and easier maintenance. Buses, especially those powered with electric batteries or fuel cells, improve air quality and help address the climate crisis. In regard to this, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced a grant of USD 409 million in March 2022 for 70 transportation projects in 39 states, including:

• The Connecticut Department of Transportation received USD 11.4 million to buy BEBs to replace diesel-powered buses that are past their useful life. The aim is to improve the reliability of these vehicles and support the zero-emission bus deployment program of Connecticut, to help it achieve its climate goals.
• The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA) received USD 15 million to build a new bus maintenance facility in Clayton County, GA. This project will help improve the reliability of its bus fleet and improve services for riders.
• Laketran, a transit agency that serves Lake County, Ohio, received nearly USD 14.7 million to expand a bus garage, add operations and maintenance facilities, and modernize its main headquarters. This project helps improve the overall services for the riders in Laketran.
• The Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada received nearly USD 5 million to buy new hydrogen fuel cell buses to replace older diesel ones and install lights powered by renewable energy at the bus stops it owns and operates. This project improved air quality as well as safety and service reliability for residents in the greater Las Vegas area.

Lower Convenience of Public Transport

• Public transport is less convenient than private transport due to privacy issues, limited amount of space, long waiting times, rush hour crowding, and unsuitability for remote areas. Moreover, public transport runs on a set schedule and may not correlate with the travel needs of those in a hurry. This also results in a significant time loss for travelers who need to arrive at their destination early. People might also have to wait for the next train or bus after concluding their business, thus making them late for home.
• Further, there is no privacy in public transportation as vehicles are crowded and offer little personal space. Nothing prevents the person sitting next to another person from reading documents or looking at the screen of the laptop, listening in on phone conversations, or inspecting the contents of handbags. This also means that people have no protection from what others choose to do in a public vehicle. Further, travelers may be exposed to germs from other passengers who are coughing, sneezing, or having symptoms of contagious illnesses. Thus, these factors may hinder the growth of the U.S. bus market in the coming years.

In-Depth Segmentation Analysis

Vehicle Type Insights

• The school buses category held the largest revenue share, around 40%, in the market in 2023. This is because these buses are the largest form of mass transportation in the country. Nearly 480,000 school buses were on the roads in 2021 in the U.S., outnumbering transit buses by roughly 7 to 1.
• Furthermore, the surging adoption of electric buses in school fleets enhances the market potential in this category in the U.S.

During the study, we have analyzed the following vehicle types in the report:

• Intercity Buses
• Intracity Buses (Fastest-Growing Category)
• School Buses (Largest Category)
• Others

Body Type Analysis

• The standard category held the larger market share, of around 75%, in 2023, and it is projected to advance at a CAGR of 5.3% during the forecast period. This is because in public transportation and schools, standard buses are used in a huge number. Additionally, customizable buses are not permitted in schools, which gives a boost to the demand for standard ones in the country.

Below are the body types covered in the report:

• Standard (Larger and Faster-Growing Category)
• Customizable

Ownership Insights

• The government category is expected to generate the highest revenue, of over 5.0 billion, by 2030. The increase in the government funding for transportation and the active involvement of governments in deploying electric buses are some of the major factors making government ownership stronger in the country.
• For example, in June 2021, the FTA, an agency within the U.S. DOT, announced a USD 182.9-million grant under the Low- or No-Emission Grant Program. The funding offered financial assistance for the purchase or lease of low-emission vehicles that incorporate advanced technologies.

The ownerships covered in the report are:

• Individual
• Fleet (Fastest-Growing Category)
• Government (Largest Category)

Propulsion Analysis

• The electric category is projected to grow at the highest CAGR, of around 5.8%, during the forecast period, in terms of revenue. This is because the penetration of electric buses in the U.S. was around 1.6% of the country’s total bus sales in 2021, and the share of electric buses in public fleets is consistently increasing.
• Further, many public transport agencies have signed contractual orders with electric bus manufacturers for the procurement of these automobiles.

The propulsions covered in the report are as follows:

• Diesel
• Gasoline
• Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) (Largest Category in 2030)
• Electric (Fastest-Growing Category)
• Fuel Cell
• Others

California is the Largest State

• The Californian bus market accounted for the largest revenue share, of around 30%, in 2023, in the U.S. This is because the huge population of the state creates the requirement for an efficient transportation system. In addition, California has become a hub of new electric bus programs. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) implements clean air standards across the state by investing in emission control projects, including the Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP).

The states analyzed for this report include:

• California (Largest and Fastest-Growing State Market)
• New York
• Texas
• Florida
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Georgia
• Virginia
• Illinois
• North Carolina
• Tennessee
• Louisiana
• Missouri
• New Jersey
• Washington
• Others

Market Nature - Consolidated

The market is consolidated due to the presence of few players. To maintain a strong position in the industry, key players in the U.S. bus market are engaged in product launches, partnerships, and collaborations. For instance, GreenPower's Battery Electric Automotive School Transportation (BEAST) appointed The RWC Group as a dealer for school buses in the states of Arizona and Washington, as well as Clark County in Nevada, with roughly 20,000 school buses in these areas.

Similarly, BYD launched a battery-electric Type D school bus with length options of 35, 38, and 40 feet in January 2021. The Type D bus can seat up to 84 and is equipped with an ADA liftgate. The bus has a range of up to 155 miles on a single charge.

U.S. Bus Industry News

• In January 2022, GILLIG LLC and Robotic Research. RR.AI, a developer of autonomous mobility solutions, partnered to develop advanced driver assistance systems and Society of Automotive Engineers level 4 autonomous vehicle technology for transit buses in North America.
• In April 2022, Proterra Inc. received a contract of USD 26.5 million from U.S. public transit agency Pace Suburban Bus, which operates in the Chicago area, to provide 20 Proterra ZX5 Max electric transit buses and 2 Proterra Megawatt-scale fleet chargers for the transition of Pace’s zero-emission fleet.
• In March 2022, Proterra Inc. received a purchase order from the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority for five fully electric-powered buses. The initiative was taken by the authority to enhance commitment to sustainability, which includes reducing the use of fossil fuel through the electrification of the at-airport transport fleet.
• In February 2022, BYD delivered two BEBs to the City of Burlington to serve Link Transit customers. The sale marked the company’s entry into the North Carolina market.
• In February 2022, ElDorado National California or ENC, a subsidiary of REV Group Inc., received the first order for six Axess BEBs from First Transit Inc. First Transit provides mobility services at the campus of Emory University in Atlanta.
• In February 2022, NFI Group Inc., a subsidiary of New Flyer of America Inc., received a purchase order from the New Jersey Transit Corporation (NJ TRANSIT) for eight zero-emission, next-generation Xcelsior CHARGE NG 40-foot heavy-duty transit buses.