Heat Pump Market Size and Share Analysis by Type (Air-to-Air, Water Source, Geothermal), End User (Residential, Commercial, Industrial) - Global Industry Growth and Demand Forecast to 2030

Market Overview

The heat pump market size is predicted to increase at an 7.8% CAGR in the coming years since standing at $53,821.2 million in 2021. The replacement of conventional fuel-based heating technology in these appliances and significant adoption of the heat pump technology in residential applications as a cost-effective heating method are positively influencing the market progress. Besides, this technology contributes substantially to the reduction of CO2 emissions and also complies with regulatory norms. As a result, the growing environmental concerns and favorable regulatory policies further lead to the market proliferation.

In this regard, the changing climatic conditions, rapid urbanization, and demographic transformations have been complementing the demand for energy-efficient heat pumps. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market witnessed a massive drop in its growth rate, owing to the temporary halt in manufacturing activities and the reduced demand for HVAC equipment. Additionally, delays in the delivery of air conditioners and heat pumps and new installation projects were witnessed due to the disruptions in the logistics network.

Air-to-Air-Type Heat Pumps Accounted for Majority of Consumer Demand

The heat pump market was dominated by air-to-air heat pumps, with around 75% share, in 2021. Quick and easy installation, long life, and low emissions are some of the prominent drivers accelerating the usage of these variants. They work by absorbing heat from the outside air and transmitting it to an enclosed space through the central heating system. Major investments in the production of tailored systems for operations across regions with extreme climatic conditions will further encourage business expansion for the key manufacturers.

Dominant Market Share Is Attributed to Residential Sector

The residential sector's demand for heat pumps accounted for the highest revenue, over $40 billion, in 2021. This is primarily due to the adoption of heat pumps to provide heating solutions in the winter season and cooling solutions on hot days. Thus, the need for these systems is fueled by climate change and the government initiatives to enhance energy efficiency in the residential sector. The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that in the U.S., heat pump sales share for newly constructed buildings exceeded 40% for single-family dwellings and about 50% for multi-family buildings in 2020.

Asia-Pacific (APAC) Market Is Principal Revenue Generator

The APAC heat pump market is projected to surpass $45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of around 9% in the years ahead. The increasing scale of residential and commercial construction, including of offices, hotels, and educational institutions, is driving the market. In addition, the stringent energy efficiency regulations and the growing R&D for upgrading technologies, to lessen the impact of human activities on the environment, would continue to lead to an expansion in the market size.

Increasing Installation of Heat Pumps to Condense Carbon Footprint To Push Market Growth

Energy production from fossil fuels results in the expulsion of GHGs in huge volumes, which leads to climate change through ozone depletion. Thus, major countries across the globe are making efforts to reduce their reliance on non-renewable sources and rapidly shifting toward renewable sources, to limit harmful emissions. For instance, in November 2021, the Indian government set new strategies to fight climate change and achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.

Similarly, the Government of the Netherlands has introduced the National Climate Agreement, extending the Climate Act, which calls for a 49% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from the 1990 levels and a 95% reduction by 2050. In addition, in September 2021, the Russian government passed a law to limit greenhouse gas emissions and encourage Russian companies to undertake environmental restoration projects and shun practices that harm the national economy and the climate.

This technology is considered a favorable solution for diminishing greenhouse gas emissions. These pumps extricate the heat from the air and then use electricity to either raise or lower its temperature depending on whether they are being used for heating or cooling. These pumps can source up to 77% of the heat from the air; thus, its usage can cut down non-renewable energy source utilization extensively when compared to alternative HVAC technologies, thereby eventually lowering the carbon emissions.

• The integration of IoT with these systems is creating a major growth opportunity for the heat pump market. IoT-based heat pumps empower real-time monitoring, predictive maintenance, and remote diagnosis of its parts. These pumps consist of smart regulators that help check environmental changes and connect with their water heater equipment. Automation and remote operations have been the key areas of focus during the creation of next-generation heat pumps, for ease of operations.
• The incorporation of machine learning and AI in heat pumps to reduce electricity consumption and enhance efficiency can also act as a major opportunistic factor for the market. Due to this, manufacturers are focusing on integrating different technologies and innovating their heat pumps, to reduce energy consumption. For instance, researchers at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) are leveraging AI to create a compressor that consumes 25% less energy than conventional ones.

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Market Participants Are Involved in Product Launches and Approvals to Gain Significant Status

Top heat pump manufacturers are heavily active in product releases and approvals, in order to maintain a competitive edge. For instance:

• In March 2022, Panasonic Corporation has unveiled its solar heat pump solutions with photovoltaics (PV)-based charging function, to save energy by maintaining bathwater temperatures at constant levels. This pump is mainly designed for residential rooftop solar water heating purposes.
• In December 2021, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation launched Ecodan Hydrodan, a low-carbon water-to-water heat pump, for the multi-residential market. The packaged ‘plug & play’ solution is specifically designed to provide heating and hot water in residential apartments and capitalize on the significant sustainable energy efficiency that the next generation of heat networks offers. It also operates with a low quantity of low-GWP R32 refrigerant, to help keep environmental impact to a minimum.

Key Players in Heat Pump Market Are:

• Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
• DENSO CORP.
• Midea Group Co. Ltd.
• Panasonic Corporation
• Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
• Johnson Controls International plc
• Daikin Industries Ltd.
• Carrier Global Corporation
• LG Electronics Inc.
• Trane Technologies plc
• GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft

Heat Pump Market Size Breakdown by Segment

The study uncovers the biggest trends and opportunities in the market, along with offering segmentation analysis at the granular level for the period 2017 to 2030.

Based on Type

• Air-to-Air
• Water Source
• Geothermal

Based on End User

• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial

Geographical Analysis

• North America
  • U.S.
  • Canada
• Europe
  • Germany
  • France
  • U.K.
  • Italy
  • Spain
• Asia-Pacific
  • Japan
  • China
  • India
  • South Korea
  • Australia
• Latin America
  • Brazil
  • Mexico
• Middle East and Africa
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa